Takeoff
How quickly AI could move from roughly human-level ability to far beyond it once that point is reached.
Takeoff describes the speed of the transition from AI that is roughly as capable as people to AI that is far more capable. The main question is whether that change would take years or decades (a slow takeoff), or weeks or months (a fast takeoff).
The speed matters because it decides how much time people would have to respond. In a slow takeoff, society and regulators could watch what is happening, test systems, and adjust as they go. In a fast one, there might be little chance to notice a problem, let alone fix it, before the world had changed.
Experts disagree. Some point to feedback loops, such as AI helping to design better AI, as a reason to expect speed. Others argue that real-world limits, like building hardware, gathering data and earning public trust, will keep change gradual. Some also dispute that there will be a single clear moment at all, and think progress will be uneven, fast in some skills and slow in others. The debate is largely about predictions, and there is little solid evidence either way yet.